PNG Braces for Strong El Niño as Weather Service Issues Drought Warning

 Papua New Guinea is expected to face drier conditions in the months ahead after the PNG National Weather Service officially confirmed that an El Niño event has developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The announcement, made on June 16, follows three months of monitoring ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions, with forecasters warning that the climate pattern is likely to affect weather systems across the country for the remainder of the year.

PNG Braces for Strong El Niño as Weather Service Issues Drought Warning

According to the PNG National Weather Service, sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have continued to warm, while atmospheric indicators and international climate models show El Niño conditions are now firmly established. Forecast models suggest the event could strengthen further and remain active until at least the end of 2026.

Weather experts say several climate models indicate the developing event may reach levels comparable to the powerful El Niño episodes recorded in 1997-98 and 2015-16, both of which brought widespread dry conditions to many parts of Papua New Guinea.

El Niño is a natural climate cycle that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. In PNG, past El Niño events have often been linked to prolonged dry spells, higher temperatures, frost in high-altitude areas, reduced river and stream flows, and drought.

The weather office warned that provinces in the Highlands, southern coastal regions and other drought-prone areas could experience below-average rainfall and increasing moisture stress in the coming months.

Authorities say the expected conditions may affect community water supplies, food production, public health services, hydropower generation, transport operations and other essential services.

Government agencies, provincial administrations, district authorities, development partners, businesses and local communities have been urged to review contingency plans and begin preparing for possible impacts before conditions worsen.

Recommended measures include conserving water, monitoring local water sources, strengthening drought preparedness plans, supporting farmers with climate-smart farming practices, raising community awareness and improving coordination among agencies responsible for disaster management, health, agriculture, water and infrastructure.

The PNG National Weather Service said it will continue to monitor developments closely and provide regular climate outlooks, drought updates and early warning information while working alongside the National Disaster Centre and other partners to ensure timely distribution of weather information.

“Early preparedness and anticipatory action remain the most effective means of reducing the impacts of drought and climate-related hazards,” the PNG National Weather Service said.